The National East is the deepest division in all of baseball. And frankly, the most difficult to predict. The top 4 teams last year; Braves, Phillies, Mets and Nationals, all return a team capable of winning the division, the National league, and the World Series. It is all going to come down to how things click, especially role players and bullpens, and injuries. Here we go with my best effort to predict this deep and balanced division...
1st Place: Atlanta Braves
In analyzing the rosters of all five teams (yes I spent time on the Marlins), the Braves have the deepest and most impact laden roster. Let's start with the Big Three: Azuna, Freeman and Albies. Azuna might the most talented player in the game, outside of Mike Trout. Freeman is this generations Chipper Jones, talented, connected to the organization, and consistent. Albies impacts the game in a myriad of ways and fits nicely in their order. The one question mark is replacing Josh Donaldson. In a short play-off series the Braves are more vulnerable without Donaldson, but over 162 games this unit will score plenty of runs. Carmargo, Riley, Ozuna, Enciarte and Markakis are good pieces.
On the mound, this young staff has the potential to become dominant. Soroka can flat-out pitch. Fried has a good a stuff as anyone, Foltyznewicz can be over-powering, and Cole Hamels can provide leadership and consistency. Finally, the bullpen is much improved over last year, and the difference maker between the Braves and Phillies, Nationals, and Mets.
2nd Place: New York Mets
With the Mets everything begins and ends with the rotation. They have the best pitcher in baseball, Jacob DeGrom. Yes he is the best pitcher!! Back-to-Back NL Cy Youngs in dominant fashion. The Mets have holes in their line-up and questions in the bullpen, but they will be in almost every game, which over 162 games means 90 plus wins. I expect a bounce back from Porcello, which gives the Mets 4 legit starters, with Matz or Wacha filling the 5th starter... tough 5 guys to get through. The bullpen has depth and strength and there is no way Diaz is as inconsistent as last year.
In the line-up I expect Conforto to become the center of their line-up. The swing is pure and compact. Jeff McNeil is one the best contact bats in baseball. Hopefully, new skipper Luis Rojas can mix and match the other guys and keep the veterans healthy. The key to the line-up is Rosario taking another leap forward.
3rd Place: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have new skipper and new #2 starter, Zach Wheeler and a renewed enthusiasm. The rotation and bullpens are still behind the Mets and Braves. The line-up may struggle until McCutcheon returns. In order to win the division Wheeler needs to really be Nola's equal and Arrieta must give them at least 170 innings.
Bryce Harper will return to Top 10 player status. Bryce will be a finalist for the MVP. He'll relax in his 2nd year in Philly and I believe Girardi's experience in NY and Giradi's understanding of pressure will benefit Harper. Jt Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball and Gregorgius is a major improvement over Freddy Galvis.
The Phillies will capture the final Wild Card spot despite finishing 3rd in their division.
4th Place: Washington Nationals
It is really difficult to put the defending champions this low, but that is how deep this division is. The Nationals may win 82-86 games and finish in 4th. This is the one team which got worse in the off-season. Losing Anthony Rendon changes their entire line-up. Soto has more responsibility and who protects Soto...???
The Nationals rotation is still scary, but I do have concerns about how much Scherzer has left. He showed signs of wear and tear last year, and now he's coming off the longest season of his career. The bullpen is still light and remember, Daniel Hudson was unemployed last March. Can he repeat his August, September and October for an entire year?
5th Place: Miami Marlins
The Marlins are making progress and the fact that they brought in some solid veterans to provide a foundation will help. I am still not that impressed with their young talent, though. Brian Andersen is a solid regular and Urena has flashed plus stuff. Isan Diaz needs to show he's a big league regular for the talent chain to start moving.
